Potential Impacts on Energy Demand of Bangladesh Due to El-Nino Impacts

Using the observed peaks (May–June 2025 and 2026), the historical seasonal pattern in Bangladesh, and the possibility of warmer-than-normal conditions associated with El Niño during the second half of 2026, a reasonable scenario suggests that demand could remain elevated through September before declining during winter. This is a scenario-based forecast rather than an official BPDB forecast. El Niño tends to increase temperatures and suppress monsoon rainfall over South Asia, raising cooling demand.

Key insights

🔥 Higher peaks in 2026

• Record demand reached 17,200 MW in May 2026, about 3.6% above May 2025.

• Under a warm El Niño scenario, another period of elevated demand may occur in July–September, with peaks potentially exceeding 16,000 MW, unlike a normal year when monsoon rainfall reduces cooling loads.

• The second half of 2026 exhibit a flatter seasonal decline, increasing pressure on gas and LNG imports.

• If prolonged heat persists, annual peak demand could approach 17.5 - 18.0 GW, close to BPDB's projected peak.

  
  

🌧 Weaker monsoon effect

Normally, rainfall reduces cooling loads after May. A weaker or delayed monsoon could flatten the seasonal decline and sustain higher demand into late summer.

⚡ Possible year-end peak

Under a high-temperature scenario, annual peak demand in 2026 could approach 17.5 - 18 GW, near BPDB's earlier summer estimates.

January-June 2026 values are based on observed demand patterns and May-June records, while July-December 2026 values are scenario forecasts assuming warmer-than-normal conditions and El Niño-related impacts. The 2025 series represent a typical seasonal pattern derived from BPDB and PGCB data.

Month	Additional Demand in 2026 Relative to 2025 (MW)	Status
January	+500	Observed pattern
February	+500	Observed pattern
March	+500	Observed pattern
April	+500	Observed pattern
May	+597	Observed record
June	-116	Observed
July	+1,000	El Niño scenario forecast
August	+1,400	El Niño scenario forecast
September	+1,500	El Niño scenario forecast
October	+1,000	Forecast
November	+800	Forecast
December	+700	Forecast

This scenario suggests that July–September 2026 may become a prolonged secondary peak season, highlighting the growing importance of demand-side management, cooling efficiency, battery storage, and Nature-Smart Renewable Power for strengthening Bangladesh's energy sovereignty.

If warming associated with El Niño intensifies, Bangladesh's electricity system may face a prolonged high-demand season rather than a short summer peak, making energy sovereignty and flexible renewable systems increasingly important.

The seasonal pattern highlights the growing importance of Rooftop solar and distributed generation; Battery storage; Energy efficiency and demand-side management; Nature-Smart Renewable Power to reduce dependence on imported LNG and coal.

*M. Zakir Hossain Khan, Proponent of Transformative Natural Rights Led Governance Framework; Co-Founder and Managing Director, Change Initiative, a global think tank; and Editor in Chief, Nature Insights. Email: zhkhan@changei.earth

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Author: M. Zakir Hossain Khan

Originally published in: Change Initiative

This article is republished for archival and informational purposes. All rights remain with the original publisher.