Does Vehicular Growth Affect Dhaka’s Air Quality? Evidence fromTime - Series Analysis

This report investigates how the rapid rise in Dhaka’s vehicle population is shaping the city’s worsening air quality, using a decade of monthly data and advanced time-series models to untangle both short- and long-term effects. Drawing on datasets from BRTA, DoE, and BMD, it shows that motor vehicles and cargo transport are major long-run drivers of pollution, while winter weather patterns sharply intensify particulate concentration. The analysis reveals that rainfall and monsoon conditions help disperse pollutants, motorcycles add significant hydrocarbon emissions, and private vehicle trends show unexpected patterns linked to fuel-efficiency improvements. Overall, the study offers clear evidence connecting vehicular trends with AQI deterioration and outlines the policy implications for transport regulation and urban planning.

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