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Venue: COP30 Venue (Specific place to be confirmed)

Date: 15th November

Time: To be confirmed

Global Dissemination of Climate Debt Risk Index 2025 (CDRI2)

The CDRI 2025 (CDRI2) focuses on 55 countries this time, quantifies how much vulnerable economies owe or are exposed to because of loan-based climate finance. Instead of ranking or scoring, the 2025 analysis presents per capita climate debt burdens, exposing how deeply each country is forced to pay for resilience.

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BACKGROUND

Climate Debt Risk Index 2024 (CDRI1), developed by Change Initiative to measure and forecast the growing climate debt burden on the world’s Least Developed Countries (LDCs). The first edition focused on 20 countries. It combines economic and climate indicators to reveal how loan-based climate finance is trapping vulnerable nations in unsustainable debt cycles. Published at COP29 through the UN-LDC Portal, the study became a key evidence base for LDC negotiators in demanding climate justice and debt relief. Its findings highlighted the violation of the “polluters pay principle,” strengthening the collective voice of LDCs against inequitable, loan-driven climate finance. This year the Index expands to 55 countries.

What Makes CDRI 2025 (CDRI2) Distinct 

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Climate Debt Risk Index (CDRI 1) on Climate Vulnerable LDCs at a glance

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 2025 CDRI (CDRI2) analysis has been expanded to 55 countries

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Data: Change Initiative (2025), compiled from OECD DAC, Climate Funds Update, Aid Atlas, and national sources.

The CDRI 2025 (CDRI2) quantifies how much vulnerable economies owe or are exposed to because of loan-based climate finance. Instead of ranking or scoring, the 2025 analysis presents per capita climate debt burdens, exposing how deeply each country is forced to pay for resilience.  

01

The LDC Group has long argued that current climate finance architecture penalizes the poorest.

02

CDRI 2025 (CDRI2) provides the first empirical evidence base that turns this political statement into measurable fact.

03

This is a great opportunity for the Group can present a consolidated, data-driven narrative showing that LDCs are paying for adaptation through debt - with per capita climate debt burdens rising despite negligible emissions.

This report can become the Group’s flagship analytical product for the NCQG negotiations (2025–2026) and Loss and Damage Fund operationalization, grounding demands for grant-first and debt-relief-linked finance.

Value Addition to LDC Secretariat and member countries

Political and Economic Value:

Evidence-based positions on Climate Debt Relief by the LDC Chair’s Office as a knowledge-producing leader - not just a negotiating bloc. No other group (AOSIS, AGN, LMDC) currently has a comparable empirical product on debt and finance risk.

Communications Advantage: 

oint release allows the Chair to present a unified datadriven position ahead of COP30 finance negotiations - reinforcing credibility with the GCF, MDBs, and bilateral partners.

Institutional Relevance: 

​CDRI-25 links directly to the Secretariat’s mandates under:​

- Doha Programme of Action (Pillar 5: Structural Transformation and Debt Sustainability). ​

- NCQG Technical Expert Dialogues (finance quality, access, and effectiveness);

-Loss and Damage Fund Board (eligibility and prioritization of debt-free instruments).

Regional Teasers from CDRI-25 Findings

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SIDS & LDCs

Per-capita debt values are low in dollars but extremely high relative to GDP and fiscal sp

Global Contrast: G20 fossil-fuel subsidies reached US $1.4 trillion in 2023, dwarfing total climate grants to all 46 LDCs combined. 

Across LDCs, over two-thirds of clean energy and infrastructure investments are loan-financed, while sectors that most directly affect human well-being-health, education, water- receive the lowest share of grants. 
 
This reveals a deep asymmetry: climate finance prioritizes bankable projects over livable futures. 

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